On July 17, 2025, Yemeni security forces intercepted a cargo ship flying the Liberia flag while patrolling the Red Sea. The 750 tons of weapons on board caused a global shock. According to the on-site video and list released by the Yemeni authorities, the weapons included advanced equipment such as naval missile systems, air defense radars, attack drones, and anti-armor missiles. The Persian manuals of some of the weapons and the logos of companies affiliated with the Iranian Ministry of Defense directly pointed to their sources.

On the evening of July 16, local time, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a large-scale airstrike on the Syrian capital Damascus, targeting the Syrian Ministry of Defense building, military facilities near the presidential palace and the entrance to the General Staff Headquarters, killing at least 3 people and injuring 34. This action is the largest military escalation since Israel intervened in the conflict in Suwayda Province in southern Syria on July 14, directly triggering an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. The Security Council will hold closed-door consultations at 18:00 Beijing time on the 17th to discuss the issue of "condemning Israel's violation of sovereignty" proposed by Syria.

Against the backdrop of a profound adjustment in the global economic landscape, the linkage between the direction of US monetary policy and the gold market has become increasingly prominent. The fierce disagreement within the Federal Reserve on the timing of interest rate cuts, the chain reaction caused by the Trump administration's tariff policy, and the subtle changes in global capital's confidence in US dollar assets have jointly shaped the new positioning of gold as a core asset. From the central bank's gold purchase boom to the surge in market demand for risk aversion, gold is evolving from a traditional crisis hedging tool to a strategic allocation target for coping with geopolitical economic uncertainties.

In the Asian market on July 16, spot gold traded around $3,340 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching a high of 98.70 on Tuesday, a new high since June 23, and closed at 98.616. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.487%, the highest level since June 11, and the 30-year yield hit a six-week peak of 5.022%.

The current US economy is at a critical juncture where multiple policy variables are intertwined: debt interest payments have broken through historical peaks, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path is shrouded in mystery, and corporate profits are trying to find a balance between trade frictions and technological innovation. The game of these three dimensions not only affects the trend of core assets such as US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar, but also reflects the deep contradictions between fiscal expansion, political intervention, and market rules in the US economy.

As of the early Asian session on July 15, the spot gold price was reported at $3,345.22 per ounce, down nearly $30 from yesterday's high of $3,374.78. The market is looking forward to the US June CPI data to be released at 20:30 in the evening. This data will be a key node to verify whether Trump's tariff policy has actually pushed up inflation, and will directly affect the market's expectations for the Fed's September rate cut. According to authoritative forecasts, the overall CPI in June may increase by 2.7% year-on-year, and the core CPI may climb to 3.0%, a six-month high.

On July 13, local time, US President Trump once again publicly called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, citing a $700 million overspend on the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters, and hinted that he would remove him from office through legal means. This incident, known as the "renovation scandal" by the market, caused a shock in the global financial market. The Federal Reserve issued a statement overnight to clarify that the renovation project was necessary maintenance and had nothing to do with policy. Spot gold prices rose to $3,372.49 per ounce in the Asian session on July 14, then fell back and eventually rose again to around $3,370. The market's risk aversion sentiment and policy games were intertwined, and gold's short-term volatility intensified.

On July 10, local time, US President Trump announced through social media that a 35% tariff would be imposed on goods imported from Canada starting August 1. This is another major trade policy adjustment by the Trump administration after the imposition of 25%-40% tariffs on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea on July 7.

On July 9, local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from June 17 to 18, showing that some officials supported considering a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting, but most officials believed that more economic data was needed to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation. This statement contrasted with the market's previous strong expectations for a rate cut in July, resulting in a volatile gold price pattern in the early Asian session on July 10 - London gold once surged to $3,326.16 per ounce, and then fell back to around $3,318.

Against the backdrop of global economic and political uncertainty, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is seeing a new round of attention. From the soaring fiscal deficit in the United States to the repeated fluctuations in trade policy, from the unclear interest rate path of the Federal Reserve to the continued increase in holdings by central banks around the world, multiple factors have jointly pushed gold prices to show strong resilience in a complex environment. This strengthening is not the result of a single variable, but a market picture woven together by the accumulation of fiscal risks, the increase in policy uncertainty and the reconfiguration of global capital.